Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, November 20th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite little news and early stock losses. The Dow has lost 56 points while the Nasdaq is down 183 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.40%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.

3/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.40%

56

Dow

43,212

183

NASDAQ

18,804

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

We have two events scheduled today that may have an impact on mortgage rates. First up is an 11:00 AM ET speaking appearance by Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The topic of this conversation is listed as Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, meaning it has a little more possibility of affecting the markets than many of the other Fed speeches. If there is a reaction to what she says, it likely will come during lunchtime trading. Whether or not this event becomes relevant to rates depends on what is said. It may be a non-factor or cause a strong reaction in the markets.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There also is a 20-year Treasury Bond auction taking place today. If the 1:00 PM ET results announcement indicates there was a strong demand for the securities, particularly from international investors, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve slightly before the end of the day. On the other hand, a lackluster demand could pressure the bond market and lead to an upward move in rates during afternoon trading.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow has three moderately important economic reports scheduled for release. We will get last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show 220,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made, up from the previous week’s 217,000. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector. Therefore, the larger the number the better the news for mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

October's Existing Home Sales report will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors is expected to announce an increase in home resales, meaning the housing sector improved slightly last month. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage pricing because a stronger housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. But unless it shows a significant surprise, this data will likely not have a major impact on rates.

Medium

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency, will release their Leading Economic Indicators for October late morning. These indicators attempt to predict economic activity over the next few months and are considered to be moderately important. Forecasts show a 0.4% decline, meaning the indicators are pointing to weaker economic growth this winter. A larger decline would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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